lifeisabluff

Good poker players have a solid grasp on the mathematical components of the game. It is one of the fundamental in every poker decisions you have to make, whether you check, call, raise or fold. Each of these decisions have a monetary impact and that’s what determines a successful poker player over the long term. One of the mathematical concepts of the game is called Expected Value (EV). Understanding EV is one key to becoming a consistently successful poker player.

Expected Value (EV) is a term used to describe the value of an event over the course of all possibilities. It is the amount of money you can expect to earn in the long run by making a specific decision in a specific circumstance. Remember it is the value of the decisions made over the long run and it doesn’t relate to short term results.

Applying the concepts, imagine flipping a coin. The outcome of the flip can be head or a tail. You have a 50-50 chance of winning. Say you bet for a head and receive even-money, meaning for every one bet you win also one bet. In the short run say 10 flips maybe you will win or lose. You win because you are lucky and getting the flips on your side or you lose because you are getting run out of bad flips. This variance is even out in the long run. Over an infinite number of flips, chances are you are getting break even. Basing on the same example say an opportunity offers a win of $1.5 for a bet of a dollar. At 20 flips, you may still get unlucky and lose your bets. But in long run say a thousand flips, on the average you get an expected value more or less $250 ((50% *1000 * ($1.5-$1)).

Poker players if they are playing properly and fundamentally correct should be using Expected Value in every single decisions you have to make. The relevance of that decisions can be a positive expected value (+EV) or a negative expectation (-EV). . Simply put, +EV is a good choice, one that will make you money in the long term, whereas -EV is a bad move, one that will lose you money in the long run. In the example above a $1.2 bet for a dollar win is an example of a –EV. It is unwise to wage your money from an event with negative expectation in the long run.

Here’s an example in Holdem. You are playing $10-$20 Holdem. Your opponent bets $20 on the turn card and total pot now is $80. After counting the outs, you believe that you have 20% chance of hitting your draw and if hit you will win the hand. This is the last money in front of you and you are offered if you are going to call $20 making the pot to $100 or fold. If you call and win, you win $100. If you call and lose, you lose $20. You have to figure if calling has the positive expectation. Computing the EV (20% x $100) + (80% x -$20), we get a +$4 EV which mean its better to call than fold.

Expected value is very important in every poker decisions because of the intricacies of the game. In the short term, results will normally vary. You can play great poker and still lose. Over the long term results will invariably normalize. Good players are going to make money in the long run because they invest and trying as much as possible with the decisions with positive expectations.